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18.08.2010 16:33Кредит доверия- Гости:
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Михаил Хазин
экономист, президент консалтинговой компании НЕОКОН
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Татьяна Фельгенгауэр
корреспондент радиостанции "Эхо Москвы"
Тихон Дзядко
корреспондент радиостанции "Эхо Москвы"
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Виктор Шендерович, писатель:





The fundamental problem is that US are in the midst of the structural crisis.
Since 1960 US are losing their market share to the foreign competition; and since 1970 the home market also. At first it was rebuild post-War Europe, than Japan, than ASEAN, and now China.While US corporations are doing well, in general American Economy steadily is going along the way ,Brittain had gone. You pretty well know that civilian shipbuilding had disappeared, 50% of the heavy industry and still making had gone as well as all textile and garment industries, consumers electronics, etc, the list will be long. The state of automotive industry is obvious. There was hope in 1980 that high tech, financial services, and service industries would substitute traditional economy. However the year Reagan had become the president, IBM presented to the public first realy personal computer; today most computers and it's components are made elsewhere, and even designing of harware and software is outsorced. If Koreans were able to learn how to build ships cheaper and better than American shipyards, there is no doubt other people will learn how to make high tech. In fact Koreans are doing many things already. On the whole Reaganomics as a strategy was a fiasco. High Tech by definition doesn't provide mass employment, it is business where relatively few highly paid employees manufacture items with very high market value. The same is true about Financial Services. As a result most available jobs are Service Industries, i.e. WalMart, McDonalds etc. Reduction of the personal taxes doesn't stimulate economy, to be more precise it stimulates Chineese economy, because most of consumers' goods are manufactured by American corporations in the cheap labour jurisdictions. The only way to revive economy is to reduce corporate taxes, remove burden of the excessive regulation, reduce ilegibility for Welfare only to old, infirm, widows and orphans, and make US once against business friendly. Living in the US you know pretty well, that no politician in the last 50 years had either guts or balls to do it. Reduction in revenues, both on personal and government levels, was covered by borrowing, and exacerbated by introduction of social programs, starting from The Great Society, and by cost of maintanance of the Empire. Roads are fixed, but it is well known secret that Empire State, as well as California, and many others are bancrupt, i.e. their obligations towards pension funds representing state employees exceed revenues and liquidity at their disposal. Of course there always is the way; to tax even more those who have a job still and businesses, with predictable results. If you will look outside Wall Street, for a change, say jump into the car and drive to upstate NY, not Cutskill Mountines, but Buffalo, you will get quite diffent prospective, of the present day of the former American industrial heartland, which collapsed in the good old days of Reagan, and never had recovered. I know what is the cost of Real Estate on the Staten Iland, and I am glad that you can afford it, but economic reality of the MidWest differs from your environment, as much as view from Moscow's penthouse from the landscape in view from the window of the Soviet era house somewhere in Voronezh or Omsk.Detroit, for instance, even though i don't trust it's lost all that much of its car plants, looks horrible even amid an economic boom. it's just a horrible city :)
Well I am writing from Raleigh, NC
Unemployment in NC is 11% on average. You are right, and I started from statement that decline had began in 1960. Kennedy administration had problem, with massive lock out imposed by US steel makers on the Unions. Lock out was the result of the strong competition from Europeans who created state of the art industry after the war. American industry was unable to pay wages and salaries the work force had become accostomed in 1940 and 50. Around this time Volks wagen had arrived on the American shores also.In 1945 US economy composed 50% of the World's one, US industrial capacity was 70% of the World's one, and all World was in debt either to the US government or US banks. This triple monopoly paid for the American Dream. This situation could not last for ever, and it means thatAmerican standard of living could not be sustainable for ever, however masses had accustomed to live much better than rest of the World. Politicians of the both parties never had ideas and political currage to address the issue. I mentioned Reagan because he was very vocal about reshaping of the American Economic base, but in fact beyond cutting some taxes he never followed ideas of the Chikago School. When he was a president, and you wanted to buy passanger jet, you really could choose only between Lockheed.Boeing, and McDonell Douglas. After all this talks about how America would lead the World by innovation only Boeing is left and it is struggling with Aerobus.It was done a lot on Echo out of the fact that young people don't want to study science and engineering, but want to be government clerks in Russia. If you will remove Chineese and Indians how many Americans you would find in the Engineering Departments? What are amount of candidates aspiring to enter Law Schools and Schools of Business versus Science and Engineering? And it is quite natural. If there is no well paid job why to bother. Chemist starts today at 45,000 and 25 years later can end as midlevel manage with100,000-120,000, somebody on the Wall Street starts from 100,000 and the ceiling is the sky.If you will remove Chineese and Indians how many Americans you would find in the Engineering Departments?
well, there'll still be some Jews left, some Italians and even a few WASPs here and there, that might wanna take it up:) not to mention Mexicans, who'll probably do it for even less payby the way, Wall St, for all its transgressions, is not a government entity. at least not yet :) Wall St is the people who give bribes, while Russian gov't is the people that get bribeb
also to note: for a person apparently astute in the topic, you write with some surprising spelling errors :)
various studies today claim that US is not an indisputable standard of living leader, anyhow. the leadership among developed nations is said to belong currently to Scandinavian countries, Benelux, Japan etc. still, as some folks like to say, Europe is the place to live and spend your money; but US is the place to make it
There are some various methodics of the calculations
Based on the purchasing ability of the pay-cheque US is still the better, if you start use some not well quantifible parameters as quality of living than you get different picture. Europeans you had mentioned are living mostly in high-rise condos and apartment buildings, pay 17% VAT on the all goods and services and higher income taxes, have one car in the family, and it is not a SUV or minivan, but most probably compact or subcompact and prices on everything are higher then in US, but they have 5 weeks of vacations a year, untill now you got 3 years of unemployment payments with cheque equal to 60% of your last pay,university education is costing parents almost nothing, and health care in some countries are of very high quality, with out price tag it is going with in US, because it is paid through taxation. But this was not the issue in the post-War Europe. In 1949 people in Germany were ready to work for pack a cigarets, and GI were picking girls for chocolate bar and pair of nylon stockings. In England rationing was abolished only in 1952. People remebered all that and were ready to work more and for less in 1950 and 1960 then in the US. People in general prefer stability. US offers better opportunity, in Europe you get more stagnation, but less unpleasant shocks from the life. I am far from denouncing Wall Street. Politicians create frame work, and business operates inside it. Although there is a difference in mentality. In the US a CEO is judged by the fact how fast and how far he moved share price. After a two or three years' stint he moves to other corporation which offers higher salary. The fact that growth of share price was achieved by canibalization of the corporation, and using resources needed for development to boost dividends,or reported profits are of no importance. In Europe and Asia they judge CEO by long term results.Конечно, свинство.
Но свинство, как и идиотизм, полезное.Писательская деятельность user zvi, как и неподражаемый контент его постов, даёт исчерпывающее впечатление об уровне культуры новой расы господ. Это полуграмотная отвязная сволочь, и сволочь непотоплямая.
МЛХ бОльшую часть программы посвятил гуманитарной проблеме. Одна из первоочередных задач - подготовить население к неизбежному снижению уровня потребления (и шире - уровня притязатий). ZVI-образная публика этого допускать не намерена.
Одна из первоочередных задач - подготовить население к неизбежному снижению уровня потребления
По мне Хазин прав.
Конечно, если жить по закону: кто наглее, тот впереди? Тогда можно и кредиты брать(потом прятаться от кредиторов) жаловаться на камни с небес, неаккуратных поставщиков и потребителей, и тд.
Потребление.
Сейчас это уже даже не вопрос морали. Обратите внимание на детскую и молодёжную индустрию (и неизбежно - рекламу). Этот контингент своих денег не имеет, или их очень мало. Сл,, товары недороги. Но их невероятно много! И они ВРЕДНЫ.Просто-напросто вредны для здоровья. Вы рекламу свежей редиски видели? --Зато сколько лотерей в обёртках для паршивых переслащенных батончиков, средств от прыщей и пр. И в кадре обязательно ролики, ирокезы, тату, сопровождаемые сакраментальным COOL!Круто! Это по-взрослому - покупать больше, быть на виду, преодолевать комплескы и самоутверждаться наличием нужной шмотки!
Стоит ли удивляться, что юные балбесы, с трудом умеющие читать, толпами валят в госуправление.
Хазин ведь очень чётко расставил акценты - управление - это там, где дают большие бабки.
Хорошему управленцу не грех много платить за РАБОТУ. Но вопрос о существе работы перед соискателями даже не стоит. Конечная цель - покупка Lamborghini.
...Но надо при этом совершенно чётко понимать, что ровно потому, что Казахстан – страна маленькая, и поэтому должна быть вписана, это программа очень сильно будет определяться внешними факторами...
...............................
Уважаемый М.Хазин, скажите, что у вас в школе было по географии? В одном из прошлых выступлений вы путали республики прибалтики, теперь вот у вас Казахстан маленький...
http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Казахстан
С уважением.
Казахстан
не только размер экономики, но и численность населения